I just came across this article from the associated press:
Economic forecasters predict that 2010 will be the first year since 2005 for housing to contribute to the growth of the U.S. economy, according to a survey released by the National Association for Business Economics.
Home prices are expected to rise 2 percent next year, but forecasters don’t believe the increase in prices will discourage homebuyers.
More than 80 percent of economists surveyed by the NABE think the recession is over and recovery has begun, but they expect the expansion to be slow because unemployment persists.
Source: Associated Press, Mae Anderson (10/12/2009)
For what seems like a little while now, a lot of enomists have been telling us that the recession is over and that recovery is nigh. Unfortunately, if this is the new global economy norm than we are in for one hell of an adjustment period. As of August, the California unemployment was at 12.1% (not seasonally adjusted, of course). The EDD is still so inundated with calls they cannot answer them fast enough. The outlook for job creation in Californa is less than rosy, as the California job creation index dropped 2.2 points in the month of September. Only 54% of polled workers had confidence in the future of their current employer. “The hiccup in this month’s California Employee Confidence Index can be attributed to a dip in confidence among workers’ personal employment situations,” explained Brian Veverka, senior branch manager for Spherion. “We were quite surprised to see that workers were feeling less secure in the future of their current employers, yet more confident in the health of the overall economy.”
Don’t get me wrong, I am quite happy to see the housing numbers going in the right direction. Traditionally, housing leads us in and out of recessions. I’m just not convinced that the recovery is on, until job creation and confidence is stable. Those who are out of work remain out of work, and those who are working aren’t inspired with confidence that they will continue to be. Until this turns around, it’s still a recession to me.
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Filed under: Buyer's Blog, Market Data, Seller's Blog, economic recovery, housing recovery, recession
Joe Capote 