Joe Capote

November 22, 2010 • 11:59 am 0

San Bruno Housing Market Remains Steady in October

The San Bruno Real estate market made some modest gains in key areas, but overall remained steady over the past month. According to data supplied by MLSListings, San Bruno saw a 11.5% drop in the number of available homes on the market. The number of homes sold during the month rose slightly from 19 to 22, while the number of pending sales dipped by nearly half.

This data is in line with what Realtors expect to see during this time of the year. The decrease in the number homes on the market can be attributed to the holiday season as sellers put their plans on hold until after the holidays. The rise in the homes sold represent buyers snatching up homes at good price points before the holiday season.

The median price of a single family residence in San Bruno dropped by nearly 5% to $534,000. This would support the increased amount of home sales at lower price points.

The investor market cooled substantially during the month of October. According to MLSListings, there were no sales of multi-unit residential homes (2-4 units and multi-unit apartment buildings) during the month of October. Of the 16 available multi-unit homes on the San Bruno market, one-quarter of them went into a pending sale status during the month. This indicates that even though it’s a traditionally slow time of the year, investors are moving on well priced investment properties. This should translate to closed escrows in December.

In what continues to be an encouraging sign of a recovering market, in my opinion, is the continued decline of distressed properties as an overall percentage of the San Bruno market. A distressed property is a bank owned foreclosure or a short sale in which the lender will work with the seller to sell the home at less than what is owed on the mortgage. The number of these distressed properties dropped to 26, representing 40% of the available single family homes on the market. Distressed properties had made up nearly 60% of the available homes on the market earlier this year.

Interested in buying or selling real estate? Check out my website for all kinds of resources for buyers, sellers and foreclosure avoidance.

Filed under: Buyer's Blog, Market Data, Seller's Blog,

August 31, 2010 • 12:19 pm 0

Announcing my Partnership with Alain Pinel Realtors!

This week I decided to switch office affiliations. I’ve joined Alain Pinel Realtors in Burlingame. Alain Pinel is an established company with a track record of success throughout the bay area. I’m stoked to have joined them! Check out my new website!

My mother Marilyn, who started her real estate career in 1974, once wrote an article on changing office affiliations. Though many things have changed since she wrote that piece, many things have remained the same. As per her advice, I did plenty of research before I made the jump. I really though about what was important to me and what I wanted out of my career as a Realtor. I really wanted to work for an established company with a stong online presence and name recognition. I also knew I wanted to work for a company that could provide superior marketing tools and cutting edge technologies. Finally, I really wanted to work for a company that was professional and team oriented.

After interviewing with many companies, I really felt like Alain Pinel Realtors in Burlingame fit all that criteria. I am proud to announce my new partnership with Alain Pinel and look forward to meeting the needs of my clients for years to come!

Filed under: Buyer's Blog, Market Data, Realtor Trends, Seller's Blog, Technology, Uncategorized

October 29, 2009 • 9:57 am 0

First Time Homebuyers Tax Credit Has Not Yet Been Extended

I woke up this morning to a deluge of email in my inbox regarding the extension of the first time homebuyer tax credit. Mostly vendors selling their wares to another potential real estate pro (read: customer) by implying that the first time homebuyer tax credit extension is imminent. While this is all nice and good, the fact of the matter is that the first time homebuyer tax credit has not yet been extended by congress. While options are being explored by congress,  I wanted to write this post just to make sure that the facts are perfectly clear: The first time homebuyer tax credit has not been extended by congress.

The first time homebuyers tax credit is an $8000 tax credit made available for qualified first time homebuyers purchasing a principal residence on or after January 1, 2009 and before December 1, 2009. That means if you are a first time homebuyer, your transaction must close before November 30th at midnight to qualify. For all intensive purposes, if you are not in a purchase contract now, you probably will not be able to take advantage of this tax credit. As a result, the National Association of Realtors and other interest groups have been pushing congress to extend this tax credit in an effort to continue to stimulate the housing market.

To some degree, congress agrees (mostly the Senate) and is currently exploring options for extending the tax credit. There are a number of various bills (as much as 15) being authored to extend the credit in various forms. This, again, is all nice and good. The House of Representatives, however, is not as supportive. They are weary of the overall cost per transaction (40k to 80k per credit, depending on whose numbers you believe) and the levels of fraud currently being seen by those claiming the credit. Regardless, there is no extension to the tax credit at this time.

While I personally believe the tax credit will be extended through 2010 and eventually phased out by the end of the year, that is my personal opinion and nothing more. There are many discussions by congress and several efforts by interest groups, but be clear that there is currently NO EXTENSION of the first time homebuyer tax credit in place now. Until such time as a bill is submitted and approved by both house and senate, be extremely wary of resources that openly proliferate the extension is imminent.

Whew. I feel better for getting that off my chest. For more information on the first time homebuyer tax credit program, visit the National Association of Home Builders website at http://www.federalhousingtaxcredit.com/2009/index.html.

Filed under: Buyer's Blog, Market Data, Seller's Blog

October 19, 2009 • 5:05 pm 0

San Mateo County Housing Data

This is a follow up blog to an earlier post,Economists Predict Housing Recovery, where I will use my mad market metrics skills to highlite some of housing data in San Mateo County in an effort to support the majorty of economists predictions that the housing market is on the upswing and recovery is nigh.

Here is the San Mateo County data. Lets take a look at home sales in single family residences within the 250k to 600k price range over the last year. Let’s start with the number of sold properties per month:

sold_props

Home sales in San Mateo county for this price range have been trending upward, but have been stagnant over the last three months. A lot of economists and real estate professionals attribute this to sales spurred by the first time homebuyer tax credit, set to expire at the end of November. While this number is a 35% increase over last year, we should be cautious before we all get giddy over the home sale numbers,. In fact, lets take a look at the homes for sale in the same data set:

for_sale_props_smc

So the amount of real estate ‘product’ on the market has dropped significantly over the last year, down 50% in the past year. So less homes on the market, more competition for homes by motivated buyers. This also results in fewer days on market, another key indicator being used in the “recovery is nigh” discussion.  

Here I am taking a look at supply and demand, or homes available vs. homes sold in any given month. According to this, available homes are trending downward while home sales trend upward.

supply_demand_smc

Supply is down 50%, and demand is up 35%. This all looks rosy, does it not?

This problem I have is that I  disagree with the economists assessments that these are all first time homebuyers purchasing homes in move in condition. The amount of short sales and REO’s on the market, which tend to attract investors and not first timers, is significantly higher than traditional sales. What I think the economists are really missing here is granularity into home sales. For example, the decreasing amounts of homes for sale lead us to believe that move-up buyers, those who own a home but are looking to sell and move up, are not active in the market. I should also mention the moratorium on new REO’s for sale. This is a problem that causes a glut in the purchase market; first time homebuyers are ready, willing and motivated to buy, but there is no product to move them into. The move up buyers are not selling, and hence the product supply is down. And the investors are snapping up the short sales and REO’s with all cash offers, skewing the sales and average days on market numbers.

Moral of the story – Just because we, as realtors, can point at numbers like average days on market trending downward, home sales trending upward and supply/demand numbers getting closer to equilibrium, we need further granularity in these numbers to truly understand the big picture. Short sales still dominate the available product, and like it or not those make buyers and agents nervous. The move-up buyers(sellers) are watching the market intently and holding the rich vein of traditonal listings they offer with them. Average days on the market is tied to homes for sale, so less product equates to less time on market.

I’m feeling much better about things, but there is a lot more to look at before I’m ready to jump on the recovery bandwagon.

Filed under: Buyer's Blog, Market Data, Seller's Blog

October 16, 2009 • 2:11 pm 1

Economists Predict Housing Recovery

I just came across this article from the associated press:

Economic forecasters predict that 2010 will be the first year since 2005 for housing to contribute to the growth of the U.S. economy, according to a survey released by the National Association for Business Economics.  

Home prices are expected to rise 2 percent next year, but forecasters don’t believe the increase in prices will discourage homebuyers. 

More than 80 percent of economists surveyed by the NABE think the recession is over and recovery has begun, but they expect the expansion to be slow because unemployment persists. 

Source: Associated Press, Mae Anderson (10/12/2009)

For what seems like a little while now, a lot of enomists have been telling us that the recession is over and that recovery is nigh. Unfortunately, if this is the new global economy norm than we are in for one hell of an adjustment period. As of August, the California unemployment was at 12.1% (not seasonally adjusted, of course). The EDD is still so inundated with calls they cannot answer them fast enough. The outlook for job creation in Californa is less than rosy, as the California job creation index dropped 2.2 points in the month of September. Only 54% of polled workers had confidence in the future of their current employer. “The hiccup in this month’s California Employee Confidence Index can be attributed to a dip in confidence among workers’ personal employment situations,” explained Brian Veverka, senior branch manager for Spherion. “We were quite surprised to see that workers were feeling less secure in the future of their current employers, yet more confident in the health of the overall economy.”

Don’t get me wrong, I am quite happy to see the housing numbers going in the right direction. Traditionally, housing leads us in and out of recessions. I’m just not convinced that the recovery is on, until job creation and confidence is stable. Those who are out of work remain out of work, and those who are working aren’t inspired with confidence that they will continue to be. Until this turns around, it’s still a recession to me.

Posted via web from josephcapote’s posterous

Filed under: Buyer's Blog, Market Data, Seller's Blog, , ,

July 27, 2009 • 7:43 pm 0

San Bruno Weekly Real Estate Stats Roundup 07/27/09

Here are the weekly real estate stats for San Bruno and San Mateo County

San Bruno:

  • New listings: 7
  • Condo/Townhome: 3
  • Mean Price: $603,325 (single family residence)
  • Mean Price: $162,796 (condo/townhome)
  • Median Price: $669,250 (single family residence)
  • Absorption Rate: 8.9
  • Total Listings: 51

New listings are down 3 from last week. The mean price for a single family residence is down, but the median price is up. The absortpion rate is down .06 from last week.

Overall numbers are flat from last week. The unemployment rate nationwide is at 10.5% with 30,000 new claims over the past week. Consumer confidence numbers trickled up slightly, but umemployment concerns continue to drive uncertainty.

Filed under: Market Data

July 20, 2009 • 9:11 pm 0

San Bruno Weekly Real Estate Stats Roundup

San Bruno Weekly Real Estate Stats Roundup

  • New Listings                10
  • REO                            3
  • Condo/Townhome        2
  • Mean (SFR)                 $622687
  • Median (SFR)            $612000

Calculating the Absorption Rate

The definition of the real estate absorption rate is the number shows the rate at which the inventory of homes for sale are being sold (www.wikianswers.com). A declining figure indicates people the inventory is decreasing as more homes are being sold than are coming onto the market. A increasing number indicates that the inventory is increasing as less homes are being sold that are coming onto the market. Pretty basic information, all REALTORs are aware of this. What I find interesting is that there are a couple of ways to calculate an absorption rate from what I’ve seen. Instead of a debate, I will quote the formula used by Realtor Magazine (http://www.realtor.org/RMODaily.nsf/pages/News2007111404)

  • First, determine the number of homes closed in your market over a specific period — say, 12 months. You can get this data from the MLS.
  • Next, divide the number of homes by the number of months in the period — in this case, 12. This calculation gives a per month absorption rate.
  • Last, divide the rate into the number of current listings. This yields the months’ supply of homes.

By this calculation, the current absorption rate for San Bruno (I use a 30 day rolling window) is 9. Since I’m using a weekly number and not a monthly number as described above, this is the week’s supply of homes. 

I’ve also seen this number calculated this way:

  • Number of listings sold in a month (30 day rolling window)
  • Multiply this number by 12 for a monthly total.
  • Divide the product by 52 for a weekly average
  • Divide this number into the number of active listings on the market.

By this calculation, the current absorption rate for San Bruno is 9.4

  •  Sold Properties             24 x 12 = 288 / 52 = 5.5 per week
  • Current Active Listings 54 / 5.5 = 9.4

Let’s follow this rate over the next few weeks to determine the trend in the San Bruno Marketplace.

Filed under: Buyer's Blog, Market Data, Seller's Blog

July 9, 2009 • 8:58 pm 0

Unemployment Data

Greg Stratton, Research Economist for the NAR has posted this weeks unemployment numbers for our review.

  • Initial claims for the week of 7/04/2009 dropped below 600,000 for the first time in nearly five months.
  • This past week’s number of initial claims was 565,000, or 52,000 less than the previous week. This beat expectations as economists only expected a weekly decrease of 4,000.
  • Some of the decrease is attributable to an acceleration of auto layoffs into the spring that normally would have occurred in July.
  • Continuing claims increased from the previous week by 159,000 to 6.883M, and are 3.8M greater than the same week last year.

    •  This data indicates the labor market is still pretty slow. Companies are not hiring with any relative gusto. Unemployment claims for this week are up over 50% from what they were in the same week last year. A source close to me indicates that there is so much activity at the California EDD that they are unable to accept any calls at this time. However, as seen in previous markets, the real estate market will begin to pick up before the unemployment numbers begin to get better.

    Our friends at the National Association of Realtors predict that the GDP and home sales will begin to improve in the third quarter in comparison to the previous year. These are good indications. As is tradition that the real estate markets lead us into recessions, they are also first to improve on the way out.

    Now if we could just get a turniquet around government spending.

    Here are the official NAR numbers:

  • GDP Q2: – 1.0%
  • GDP Q3: +0.2%
  • GDP Q4: +1.0%
  • Unemployment rate by the end of 2009: 10.5%
  • Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate by the end of 2009: 5.4%

    • As I have been saying in previous posts, those with the desire, need and ability to buy should aggressively do so. The current attractive home prices coupled with the first time homebuyers tax credit make it a better time than ever before to become a player in the Northern California Real Estate Market. The Tax Credit only applies to purchase transactions that CLOSE before December 1, 2009, so time is running out.

    For more information as to whether or not you qualify for the First Time Homebuyers Tax credit, please look at my Buyer’s Center or contact me directly.

    Filed under: Market Data

    July 6, 2009 • 10:21 pm 0

    San Mateo County Real Estate Market Data – June 2009

    San Mateo County Real Estate Market

    The end of June in the San Mateo County real estate market saw another month of slow growth and strengthened indicators. While the current inventory numbers fell 6.5% overall,  the closed sales rose 23.5% for the month while the average days on the market dropped by nearly 9%. The median sales prices continue to rise, up 5% in June from $728,000 to $765,000. Average sales prices in San Mateo country rose  in June as well, up 2% from $933,698 to $945,717. Total sales volume in San Mateo county rose nearly 25%.

    San Bruno Real Estate Market

    Here in San Bruno, the indicators aligned with what San Mateo County is doing overall. While new listings for the month dropped slightly and average sales price remained flat, the average days on the market fell 16% while the number of sales rose by 23%.  Total sales volume rose sharply from 7.3 million to 9.5 million, a 23% increase.  The current absortpion rate for San Bruno is 0.62, meaning that there is roughly 2-3 weeks before currently available inventory will be purchased.

    Overall

    Though the amount of available inventory on the market continues to remain short, market indicators in San Bruno and San Mateo county continue to rise. Buyers are finding competition for available homes in the form of multiple offers and offers in backup position, while sellers are finding a better than expected demand for available homes. While the recent unemployment numbers continue to drive uncertainty in the market, buyers are finding that the market pricing has bottomed out and is rebounding up. Those with the means to buy should place a premium on buying this year, as the upward trends in the market coupled with governement incentives such as the first time homebuyers credits should continue to propel the markets.

    For further information or to discuss whether or not you qualify for the first time homebuyer tax credits, please contact me for a no obligation consultation at your convenience.

    Joseph Capote

    Filed under: Market Data

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