Joe Capote

July 9, 2009 • 8:58 pm

Unemployment Data

Greg Stratton, Research Economist for the NAR has posted this weeks unemployment numbers for our review.

  • Initial claims for the week of 7/04/2009 dropped below 600,000 for the first time in nearly five months.
  • This past week’s number of initial claims was 565,000, or 52,000 less than the previous week. This beat expectations as economists only expected a weekly decrease of 4,000.
  • Some of the decrease is attributable to an acceleration of auto layoffs into the spring that normally would have occurred in July.
  • Continuing claims increased from the previous week by 159,000 to 6.883M, and are 3.8M greater than the same week last year.

    •  This data indicates the labor market is still pretty slow. Companies are not hiring with any relative gusto. Unemployment claims for this week are up over 50% from what they were in the same week last year. A source close to me indicates that there is so much activity at the California EDD that they are unable to accept any calls at this time. However, as seen in previous markets, the real estate market will begin to pick up before the unemployment numbers begin to get better.

    Our friends at the National Association of Realtors predict that the GDP and home sales will begin to improve in the third quarter in comparison to the previous year. These are good indications. As is tradition that the real estate markets lead us into recessions, they are also first to improve on the way out.

    Now if we could just get a turniquet around government spending.

    Here are the official NAR numbers:

  • GDP Q2: – 1.0%
  • GDP Q3: +0.2%
  • GDP Q4: +1.0%
  • Unemployment rate by the end of 2009: 10.5%
  • Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate by the end of 2009: 5.4%

    • As I have been saying in previous posts, those with the desire, need and ability to buy should aggressively do so. The current attractive home prices coupled with the first time homebuyers tax credit make it a better time than ever before to become a player in the Northern California Real Estate Market. The Tax Credit only applies to purchase transactions that CLOSE before December 1, 2009, so time is running out.

    For more information as to whether or not you qualify for the First Time Homebuyers Tax credit, please look at my Buyer’s Center or contact me directly.

    Filed under: Market Data

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